InSpin

Green Bay Packers +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys.

Sunday night’s Dallas-Green Bay showdown is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game won by … oh, that’s right. The Cowboys were upset by the Giants in last year’s playoffs, which torpedoed the NFC title game against Green Bay that everyone expected and wanted.

Of course, the Packers went on to lose to the Giants and Brett Favre eventually moved on to the Jets. Perhaps the reason the Packers felt so comfortable turning their team over to Aaron Rodgers and letting Favre go was because of Rodgers’ performance in last season’s Week 13 loss at Dallas.

Replacing an injured Brett Favre, Rodgers came off the bench and was 18-of-26 for 201 yards and a touchdown. He got the Packers close, but Dallas prevailed 37-27. Many believe that outing got the ball rolling on Green Bay management deciding that it was time for a changing of the guard at quarterback.

And Rodgers has not disappointed this year. In leading Green Bay to wins over Minnesota and Detroit, Rodgers has four touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 70 percent of his throws. Dallas will be the first NFL team to see Rodgers twice, if that’s worth anything.

“He's making good decisions and he's being accurate with the football," Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said. "He hasn't taken many chances, and that's all part of good quarterback play. He needs to continue to do that."

Still, the Packers are 3-point home underdogs on WagerWeb.com.

One thing to monitor for this game is the status of Packers starting RB Ryan Grant, who has been bothered by a hamstring injury and hasn’t practiced much this week. Grant had only 20 yards on 15 carries against the Lions last week. If he can’t go, Brandon Jackson would get the start.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys will be looking for their first-ever win in Green Bay, and Dallas has lived up to the Super Bowl hype this year in beating Cleveland and Philadelphia.

Tony Romo, a Wisconsin native who will make his first start at Lambeau Field, has four touchdowns in the first two games as he directs the No. 1 offense in the NFC. Dallas averages 7.4 yards per play, tops in the league, and its 433.5 yards per game rank second in the league in total offense.

"We did a lot of great things last year, and we’re always trying to improve. I hope they’re better," coach Wade Phillips said. "They’ve started off really well. We played two pretty good defensive teams, and I think we played pretty well against them."

In addition, Romo lit up the Packers last year for 309 yards and four touchdowns and the Cowboys’ running game behind Marion Barber and 2008 top draft pick Felix Jones appears better than last year’s version.

So expect plenty of points in this game (the WagerWeb.com over/under is 51), especially with both defenses showing holes: Green Bay ranks No. 22 overall, while Dallas is at No. 10 - but that may be misleading as the Cowboys opened with the struggling Browns offense but then were shredded on Monday by the Eagles.

Home/road trends won’t help much in this game: Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 at home in the regular season, but the Cowboys have lost just one of their last 12 road contests.

InSpin.com