InSpin

Packers - 5 1/2 vs. Falcons

All was well in Cheeseland for the first two games. Dominating performances against division rivals Minnesota and Detroit, albeit a little scare in Week 2 against the Lions, the Packers looked like the class of the division and maybe one of the contenders in the NFC. Two tough losses later and the 2-2 Packers are looking like a team in some hot water. Their bitter rivals, the Bears have played better as of late and the health of their quarterback is now in doubt. Those are words Packer fans are not used to hearing.
Aaron Rodgers expects to play through his shoulder injury in order to get the Packers back on track. Green Bay looks to avoid a third straight loss for the first time since the 2006 campaign.

Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said Rodgers intends to play this weekend despite suffering a shoulder injury in Green Bay's 30-21 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. Rodgers hurt his throwing shoulder in the third quarter when he reached the ball out trying to get a first down and was tackled hard. He initially thought he separated the shoulder, but the Packers (2-2) are calling it a sprain.

A more pressing concern for the Packers is the decline of rushing production. The team's net rushing yard total has declined in each of their four games. Ryan Grant had only 20 yards on 15 carries last Sunday as he too plays through an injury, this time a hamstring injury.
With all the bad news the Packers have faced this week, they do have some good news: The Falcons are coming to town.

Atlanta (2-2) is not a good road team to say the least. The Falcons have lost both of their road games in 2008, five straight and nine of the last 10 on the road dating back to last season. The wicked road took them to Carolina last week and their souvenir was a throttling by their division rival. Matt Ryan was neither solid nor spectacular, but Michael Turner whom the Falcons have been relying on more and more this season stumbled to only 56 yards rushing.

Even with their road woes, the Falcons do have some positive history at Lambeau Field. Atlanta's last visit to Green Bay was at the Falcons' 27-7 playoff victory on Jan. 4, 2003.

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Bears -3 1/2 vs Lions

It is the tale of two teams heading in opposite directions in this NFC North tilt of old and bitter rivals.

On the upswing are the Chicago Bears (2-2), who come into Ford Field for their one o'clock game with some new vigor and determination. After dispatching the Philadelphia Eagles this past Sunday night, the Bears realize that perhaps their only stumbling block to the division championship this year could be themselves.  With the health of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers up in the air, not to mention his team's two game losing streak, and the Minnesota Vikings continued struggles, the Bears realize that they just might be the class of the division and will only lose if they beat themselves. The Bears feel their defense is up to their 2006 standards, if not better, and have excelled at the end of their Week 4 game, rather than folding in the fourth quarter like they did in their two losses this season.

Their opponents on Sunday hope that they fit into the NFC North equation somehow. The Detroit Lions (0-3) return from their bye week hoping they did enough to bale out the sinking ship. The Lions finally parted ways with embattled General Manager Matt Millen last week and are prepared to move forward. Just how they will move forward will remain to be seen. The Lions are dead last in defense and ranked 26th in offense and it is hard to imagine Millen's firing, while a good thing in the long run, will change these statistics.

This could be a mismatch in the making, depending on which Chicago Bears team shows up in Detroit. If the Bears team from Week 1, Week 4 and the first three quarters of Weeks 2 and 3 show up, they should not have a problem. Their defense should be able to force Jon Kitna into making his usual mistakes and turnovers while Chicago's much-maligned offense should have some success against the Lions defense.

Be weary of crowning the Bears the winner too quickly, however. This may be a trap game for Chicago. After winning on national television over a good Philadelphia team on Sunday night, they head on the road to take on a seemingly listless Lions team with nothing going for them. The Bears have been the one NFC North foe Detroit has had success against in recent years. They swept Chicago in the team's two games last season and are 4-2 against the Bears in Detroit since Ford Field opened in 2002.

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Bucs -1 1/2 vs. Packers

The Brett Favre era in Green Bay Packers is officially over, but the future of the franchise has never looked brighter in the hands of the Pack's starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Even though the Packers suffered their first loss of the season to the extremely talented Dallas Cowboys last week it is becoming more and more apparent that the Packers faith in their young quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the off season during the whole Brett Favre ordeal is really starting to pay off. Being the first quarterback in the post-Favre era is no easy task, but Rodgers has his squad off to a 2-1 start and his high powered offense firing on all cylinders.

Although their records are identical at 2-1, the same cannot be said for Tampa Bay Bucs offense. The Bucs may be confident with their new starting quarterback Brian Griese after 67 pass attempts by the NFL veteran in last week's overtime victory over the Chicago Bears, but with a secondary like the Packers that is jam packed with young talent and experienced veterans the Bucs will be forced to mix in more of a ground attack if they want to even have a chance to compete with Rodgers and company.

If Green Bay's offense starts clicking early like it has so far this season by putting points with almost every possession lead by Aaron Rodgers' surprisingly veteran-like decision making and the Packers defense can keep Tampa Bay's air assault in check, it should be a fairly easy victory for the Packers, but if Griese can pull his boys on offense together like he did last weekend (minus the interceptions) the Bucs may have the chance of pulling off the upset of this NFC powerhouse.

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Green Bay Packers +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys.

Sunday night’s Dallas-Green Bay showdown is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game won by … oh, that’s right. The Cowboys were upset by the Giants in last year’s playoffs, which torpedoed the NFC title game against Green Bay that everyone expected and wanted.

Of course, the Packers went on to lose to the Giants and Brett Favre eventually moved on to the Jets. Perhaps the reason the Packers felt so comfortable turning their team over to Aaron Rodgers and letting Favre go was because of Rodgers’ performance in last season’s Week 13 loss at Dallas.

Replacing an injured Brett Favre, Rodgers came off the bench and was 18-of-26 for 201 yards and a touchdown. He got the Packers close, but Dallas prevailed 37-27. Many believe that outing got the ball rolling on Green Bay management deciding that it was time for a changing of the guard at quarterback.

And Rodgers has not disappointed this year. In leading Green Bay to wins over Minnesota and Detroit, Rodgers has four touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 70 percent of his throws. Dallas will be the first NFL team to see Rodgers twice, if that’s worth anything.

“He's making good decisions and he's being accurate with the football," Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said. "He hasn't taken many chances, and that's all part of good quarterback play. He needs to continue to do that."

Still, the Packers are 3-point home underdogs on WagerWeb.com.

One thing to monitor for this game is the status of Packers starting RB Ryan Grant, who has been bothered by a hamstring injury and hasn’t practiced much this week. Grant had only 20 yards on 15 carries against the Lions last week. If he can’t go, Brandon Jackson would get the start.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys will be looking for their first-ever win in Green Bay, and Dallas has lived up to the Super Bowl hype this year in beating Cleveland and Philadelphia.

Tony Romo, a Wisconsin native who will make his first start at Lambeau Field, has four touchdowns in the first two games as he directs the No. 1 offense in the NFC. Dallas averages 7.4 yards per play, tops in the league, and its 433.5 yards per game rank second in the league in total offense.

"We did a lot of great things last year, and we’re always trying to improve. I hope they’re better," coach Wade Phillips said. "They’ve started off really well. We played two pretty good defensive teams, and I think we played pretty well against them."

In addition, Romo lit up the Packers last year for 309 yards and four touchdowns and the Cowboys’ running game behind Marion Barber and 2008 top draft pick Felix Jones appears better than last year’s version.

So expect plenty of points in this game (the WagerWeb.com over/under is 51), especially with both defenses showing holes: Green Bay ranks No. 22 overall, while Dallas is at No. 10 - but that may be misleading as the Cowboys opened with the struggling Browns offense but then were shredded on Monday by the Eagles.

Home/road trends won’t help much in this game: Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 at home in the regular season, but the Cowboys have lost just one of their last 12 road contests.

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